Category: Uncategorized

Net Zero: The Sunlit Upland

Featured

As our politicians belatedly prepare road maps out of lockdown it is critical their plans look beyond short hop journeys to a new normal and train eyes on the horizon to what must be our final destination:  net zero.

We start the journey from an unrecognisable landscape. The business as usual terrain which we live on is broken and scarred from the violent economic tremors of the Coronavirus quake. High above the fractured infrastructure of modern life, the citadel of capitalism constructed by big business has also been shaken by the shockwaves of a global pandemic. Those living inside have let down the drawbridge for unconditional bailouts to rebuild the weakened walls and tilted towers of their business empires. 

But we must not be cowed into compliance by their economic power. As we survey our broken lands we must resist the urge to stay put and rebuild what was there before. Instead, we must find the collective will to leave behind Business as Usual, journey beyond New Normal and set up home in a new place called Net Zero.

The journey ahead is long and challenging. Obstacles will be put in our way by Big Business as it  uses all the means at its disposal to maintain the bottom line, setbacks will be encountered as, inevitably, some ideas and approaches don’t work as hoped and personal sacrifices will need to be made as we change how we consume, how we work and how we travel. 

But with vision, imagination and ingenuity we can navigate a route through the hazards and move forward to the broad sunlit uplands of Net Zero. 

We can inhabit a place where people and planet are prioritised over profit, where we live above the lower limits of human need and below the upper limits of planetary health, where success is measured by well being of people and the planet. 

We can inhabit a place where businesses rooted in community thrive, where social enterprises, mutuals and co-operatives are supported to succeed, where a circular economy powered by a green new deal makes the most efficient use of finite natural resources.

We can inhabit a place where the air we breath is clean, where the spaces we live in are green and nature is allowed to flourish, where net emissions are zero and potentially catastrophic rises in global temperatures are limited to 1.5c. 

But only if we look to the horizon and start now on the journey which will take us from broken terrain to sunlit upland.

July was hottest month ever

July 2019 will equal and possibly surpass the hottest month ever recorded according to temperature data gathered by the World Meteorological Organisation and Copernicus Climate Challenge.

“July has re-written climate history, with dozens of new temperature records at local, national and global level,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

A series of record high temperatures across Northern Europe caused disruption to transport and infrastructure and stress on people’s health and the environment.

Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom saw new national temperature records on 25 July, as weather maps were redrawn to include – for the first time – temperatures of above 40°C. Paris recorded its hottest day on record, with a temperature of 42.6 °C at 16:32, an unprecedented value since the beginning of measurements.

As the heat dome spread northwards through Scandinavia, it accelerated the already above average rate of ice melt in Greenland, in the Arctic and on European glaciers.

“Unprecedented wildfires raged in the Arctic for the second consecutive month, devastating once pristine forests which used to absorb carbon dioxide and instead turning them into fiery sources of greenhouse gases,” said Mr Talaas.

“This is not science fiction. It is the reality of climate change. It is happening now and it will worsen in the future without urgent climate action,” he prophesied.

This follows the hottest June ever recorded and is even more significant because the previous hottest month recorded in July 2016 occurred during a strong El Niño phenomenon, which contributes to higher global temperatures.

Unlike 2016, El Niño is not a factor in the record heat events experienced during the summer of 2019.

Johannes Cullmann, Director of WMO’s Climate and Water Department warned: “Such intense and widespread heatwaves carry the signature of man-made climate change.”

Cullmann added: “ This is consistent with the scientific finding showing evidence of more frequent, drawn out and intense heat events as greenhouse gas concentrations lead to a rise in global temperatures.”

In its Fifth Assessment Report, released in 2014, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that “it is very likely that human influence has contributed to the observed global scale changes in the frequency and intensity of daily temperature extremes since the mid-20th century. It is likely that human influence has more than doubled the probability of occurrence of heat waves in some locations.”

Since the IPCC released its the Fifth Assessment Report, Earth has experienced its five warmest years on record from 2015-2019. The four warmest years on record were in the past four years and the heat trend continues unabated so far in 2019: the months January to May were the third warmest such period on record, June 2019 was the hottest June ever recorded and July is the hottest month ever recorded.

WMO will submit a five year report on the state of the climate 2015-2019 to the UN Climate Action Summit in September. The visible and increasing urgency of climate action will be in focus at the crucial summit convened by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.

“If we do not take action on climate change now, these extreme weather events are just the tip of the iceberg. And, indeed, the iceberg is also rapidly melting,” Mr Guterres said when announcing the latest temperature data.

“Preventing irreversible climate disruption is the race of our lives, and for our lives. It is a race that we can and must win,” he underlined.

Climate change has been given a big head start and the finishing line is not too distant in the future. The Climate Action Summit in September must galvanise a concerted global effort from us all to speed up change and give ourselves a chance of catching up the climate crisis.

Transition from Business as Usual to Climate Emergency has begun

Sirens did not sound and rescue services did not heroically leap into action after Nicola Sturgeon used her address to the Scottish Nationalist Party conference on April 28th to declare a climate emergency. However, the First Minister’s words signalled an important change in priorities.

The declaration came after escalating protests by young people made clear the increasing public concern about the catastrophic consequences of climate change.

“A few weeks ago, I met some of the young climate change campaigners who’ve gone on strike from school to raise awareness of their cause,” said Sturgeon in her speech to Conference.

“They want governments around the world to declare a climate emergency. They say that’s what the science tells us. And they are right.

“So today, as first minister of Scotland, I am declaring that there is a climate emergency. And Scotland will live up to our responsibility to tackle it.”

The declaration preempted recommendations on long range emissions targets from the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), the independent advisory body on climate change to UK, Scottish and Welsh Governments. 

The CCC published a report, Net Zero – The UK’s contribution to stopping global warming, four days after a national emergency was declared in Scotland.

In their report, the CCC recommended that the Scottish government should set a net-zero date of 2045. This means within the next 25 years any greenhouse gases put into the air from everyday activity like heating homes, travelling and producing food must be taken back out from things like planting more trees or using technology to capture carbon from the air. 

The report concluded net zero is only possible if clear, stable and well-designed policies to reduce emissions further are introduced across the economy without delay.

The Scottish Government responded to the CCC’s advice by announcing a small but significant change to tax policy on flying. 

The SNP committed in their 2016 Holyrood election manifesto to replace the existing UK Air Passenger Duty with an Air Departure Tax (ADT) for Scotland. The pledge included a commitment to halve the tax on flights from Scottish Airports before abolishing it completely. 

The controversial tax plan had already encountered legal issues and the UK Government and Scottish Government agreed that introduction of ADT will be deferred beyond April 2020.

Derek McKay, Scotland’s Finance Secretary, remains committed to taking on the tax raising power but the UK Government will maintain the application of Air Passenger Duty until a solution is found to an issue with tax exemptions for the Highland and Islands.

Advice from the CCC and Nicola Sturgeon’s declaration of a climate emergency forced another significant shift in policy from the Scottish Government. 

McKay confirmed after publication of the CCC report: “Following the updated advice from the UK Committee on Climate Change – and the new 2045 target for net-zero emissions proposed as a result – we have taken the difficult decision that reducing ADT is no longer compatible with Scotland’s new emissions reduction targets.”

Business leaders accused the Scottish government of “an alarming U-turn on their promise to abolish Air Departure Tax.”

Liz Cameron OBE, Director & Chief Executive, Scottish Chambers of Commerce, condemned the change in policy: “This decision will do nothing to reduce emissions. Instead, it will cut Scotland off at the knees in terms of connectivity and a competitive playing field.”

The Chief Executive of Edinburgh Airport also criticised the announcement, warning the U-turn would harm the country and could lead to airlines reducing the number of flights.

Gordon Dewar told The Scottish Sun: “This decision jeopardises our standing in the world, our international outlook, jobs and investment.

A report commissioned by Edinburgh Airport in 2016 forecast a cut in APD could result in an additional 4.6 million passengers by 2021, creating 10,000 jobs in the tourism sector and adding £300m in value to the Scottish economy.

Economic benefits from flying, however, come at an expensive environmental cost. 

Aircraft emit a range of greenhouse gases directly into higher levels of the atmosphere which scientists believe increase their effects on climate change. Growth in air traffic has increased emissions from flying by 70% since 2005. Scientists predict continuing high growth could mean aviation accounts for 15% of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The CCC advises emissions from aviation can no longer be ignored. 

Climate campaigners welcomed the news that the planned tax reduction would be scrapped.

“This change of heart is excellent news. When you are in a Climate Emergency the first thing you should do is stop all the things that will make the situation worse.” commented Friends of the Earth Scotland Director Dr. Richard Dixon.

“Cancelling the ADT cut demonstrates that declaring a Climate Emergency is a serious commitment, more than just words.” 

Sirens did not sound and emergency service workers did not heroically leap into action but, by scrapping a planned reduction in tax, the Scottish government has begun the necessary transition from business as usual to climate emergency.

No news is not good news in a climate crisis

In a climate change catch up, I take look at the bad news, good news and no news is not good news items that caught my attention over the last week.

In the bad news, Big business as usual continued apace with Heathrow Airport making its case as the saviour of future economic prosperity in the UK . Heathrow’s “preferred master plan” looks beyond the construction of a third runway in 2026 to an airport nirvana in 2050; an international connectivity hub with capacity for 130 million passengers and 740,000 flight movements per year. The disaster plan, sorry, “masterplan” is endorsed on the Heathrow expansion plan website by a former director of the UK’s chief ‘business as usual’ lobby group. “A new runway at Heathrow is really fantastic news,” said Paul Dreschler, former president of the CBI. Forget the climate science, with an endorsement like that the Heathrow expansion plan has my full support.

The extra planes needed to fill the increased capacity at Heathrow’s air passenger paradise were ordered at the Paris Air Show which took place this week in…err..Paris. It was a busy week of sales in the French capital. The key players in the industry announced contracts and promises worth $75 billion. ‘Business as Usual’ may have netted a few individuals sky high commissions but at the future cost to us all of sky high emissions. ‘Business as Usual’ may have hit a few executives’ annual sales targets but it puts future net zero targets at risk for us all.

Those closing the deals at the Air Show probably missed the latest bad news from climate scientists. Research published in the journal Science Advances revealed melting of the Himalayan Glacier has doubled since the turn of the century. The study shows that only global heating caused by human activities can explain the ice loss. Scientists leading the research predict dire consequences for the 1 billion people living downstream from the Himalaya mountains in South Asia. “It looks devastating and there is no doubt in my mind, not a single grain of doubt, that [the impact of the climate crisis] is what we are seeing,” said Prof Joerg-Shaeffer from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth observatory.

In another sign of the accelerating climate crisis, a scientific expedition discovered permafrost at outposts in the Canadian Arctic is melting 70 years before predicted. “What we saw was amazing,” Vladimir Romanovsky, a professor of geophysics at Alaska Fairbanks university, told Reuters. “It’s an indication that the climate is now warmer than at any time in the last 5,000 or more years.”

I wonder what Paul Drechsler, former director of the CBI thinks of the news from the Himalayas and Canadian Arctic.

In good news, Britain is set to achieve a historic electricity generation milestone this year, with more electricity generated from zero carbon sources than fossil fuels.

According to National Grid, owners of the electricity transmission network in England and Wales, annual power generation data from the last decade shows, for the first time, Britain’s reliance on cleaner energy sources (wind, solar, nuclear, hydro power and storage) will overtake fossil fuels (coal and gas fired power generation). The revolution in clean electricity generation has seen the reliance on energy sourced from fossil fuels fall from 75% in 2009 to 46% this year. In May, Britain clocked up its first coal free fortnight and generated record levels of solar power for two consecutive days, powering more than a quarter of the country’s daily electricity consumption.

John Pettigrew, CEO of National Grid, said: “The incredible progress that Britain has made in the past ten years means we can now say 2019 will be the year net zero power beats fossil fuel fired generation for the first time. Having reached this landmark tipping point, the question is what are we doing today to get to net zero as quickly as possible?”

Good question John.

Teachers provide one of the answers in another sign of the growing consciousness of climate change. According to the findings of a poll commissioned by Oxfam from YouGov, teachers want their pupils to learn more about the climate crisis and are calling for environmental training so they can prepare children for a rapidly changing world. 70% of teachers polled agreed radical change was needed to make the education system “fit for the times we live in” and called for environmental training to help them educate students on the subject.

Another poll found public concern about climate change is at an all-time high. New research found that “climate anxiety” is exacerbated by a perceived lack of urgency around addressing the problem and the impact this will have on future generations. Nearly seven out of ten (69 per cent) of Brits who are concerned about climate change said it was because they believe it’s not being addressed urgently enough. 

The research also identified a demand for clearer information on what action is being taken to reduce emissions. Nearly three in five (56 per cent) Brits worried about climate change stated that more information from government and businesses about what action is being taken would help address their concerns, and almost half (49 per cent) would like regular reporting on Britain’s progress in tackling climate change.

It seems the old adage ‘No news is good news’ has, like coal, had its day. In a climate crisis, no news is not good news.

Government announcements this week on the climate crisis did not offer any news on real action being taken to reduce emissions.

MPs in the UK Parliament announced plans to hold a Citizens’ Assembly on combatting climate change and achieving the pathway to net zero carbon emissions. Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Greg Clark welcomes the Citizens’ Assembly: “Ending our contribution to climate change can be the defining decision of our generation in fulfilling our responsibility to the next, but it will require the effort of a generation to deliver it.” 

The sense of urgency amongst our MPs to begin this “effort of a generation” is palpable….they announced the Assembly is likely to begin in the Autumn. It’ll give them a chance to enjoy their summer holidays first, perhaps flying from Heathrow to a location in the sun.

The announcement from Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s First Minister, was even more underwhelming. Sturgeon’s big announcement was there would be an announcement. The First Minister, speaking ahead of the World Forum on Climate Change held in Glasgow this week, revealed plans to give people, businesses, industry and the public sector across Scotland the chance to be part of a “Big Climate Conversation” would be launched next week.

The Citizens Assembly and the “Big Climate Conversation” are both designed to give members of the public the opportunity to learn about and discuss a topic before reaching conclusions that would be used to inform political debate and Government policy making. These are welcome but it’s real news on actual policies that people need to reduce climate anxiety.

No news was reported this week that I could see on action being taken by government to reduce emissions and help address the concerns of climate anxiety. In a climate crisis, no news is not good news and bad news is very bad news…despite what Paul Drechsler, former director of the CBI might say.

BBC guilty of climate delay

“These schoolchildren have grasped something that seems to elude many of their elders: we are in a race for our lives, and we are losing. The window of opportunity is closing; we no longer have the luxury of time, and climate delay is almost as dangerous as climate denial,” said Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations, in March after tens of thousands of young people had again taken to the streets to protest at inaction on climate change.

The words came to mind as I watched ‘Our Prime Minister’, the debate between candidates for the Conservative party leader and, by default, our next Prime Minister aired by the BBC on Tuesday night.

Politicians are in the cross hairs of young climate protesters but last night the BBC showed they are also failing to respond to the dramatic climate challenge.

The production team were culpable for not allowing any meaningful challenge on our next Prime Minister’s climate change credentials. The programme was top heavy on Brexit with half of the debate taken up recycling the same tired rhetoric about leaving the European Union. The biggest issue humanity has ever faced was positioned way down the programme’s running order. The question on climate change was the second to last and was given less than five minutes air time.

To compare this editorial decision to another high profile show, scheduling the question so late and leaving so little time for discussion ranked imminent climate and ecological breakdown the same as a dull, meaningless draw on BBC’s flagship Saturday football show, Match of the Day. With time running out we were never going to get anything else but climate change platitudes from the Prime Minister wannabes.

Like the politicians they are supposed to hold to account, BBC journalists are fixated on Brexit whilst the planet hurtles towards climate and ecological breakdown. I trust the Beeb above any other UK broadcaster but last night, by reducing climate change to a bit-part in the Brexit drama, they showed they too are culpable of climate delay.

Buzzing like a Breaking Bad fly

There is an episode in the television series Breaking Bad which features Walter White, the show’s central character, obsessively trying to catch a fly which he feels is contaminating his crystal meth lab.

If you’ve not the seen the show, Walter’s cancer diagnosis sets him on a dangerous journey from middle-aged family man and inspirational High School teacher to master meth cook and scheming drug kingpin.

The fly featured in the episode symbolises Walter’s attack of conscience over the desperate actions he has taken and the dark choices he has made to stay alive and, as he tells himself, to provide for his family.

I liken myself to the Breaking Bad fly as I buzz persistently and annoyingly around the consciences of the politicians elected to represent me. The fly Walter White takes extreme measures and suffers harm to silence is a reminder to him of the nefarious actions he has taken to secure a future for his family. In the same way, I have pestered my MP, MSPs and the Scottish government with emails and the occasional visit to their surgery in an attempt to rouse them from their immoral inaction on climate change and remind them of their duty to act now to safeguard the future of my family.

Contacting members of Parliament does have an effect. On their own, emails like mine are easily swatted away but a swarm of voices persistently buzzing in the ear of our politicians cannot be ignored. Roseanna Cunningham, the Scottish Cabinet Secretary for Climate Change, acknowledged the influence of the voices of Scottish people when she announced on 2nd May more ambitious targets to tackle the climate emergency, “There is a global climate emergency and people across Scotland have been calling, rightly, for more ambition to tackle it and safeguard our planet for future generations.”

The Breaking Bad episode ended with the lab fly dead and a distraught Walter White in bed at home, kept awake by the sound of a fly buzzing around the darkened room.

Climate change has reached the end of an episode too. Scottish and UK Governments have both now committed to net zero emissions by 2045 and 2050 respectively. This does not clear our politicians’ consciences. The targets have taken too long to set and are meaningless without actions to back them up. I will still be emailing my elected representatives to ask what specific measures they are now pushing for to combat the climate crisis. I am now the fly buzzing around Walter White’s bedroom.